Analysts estimate 410,000 EVs will be sold in Q3, representing a record 10% of all new-car sales.
September new-vehicle sales are expected to show a resilient market that continues to shake off significant policy changes and economic uncertainty, according to data from Cox Automotive.
The September new-vehicle SAAR, or seasonally adjusted selling rate, is expected to finish near 16.2 million, an increase from last year’s 15.8 level and a slight uptick from August’s 16.1 million pace. Sales volume is expected to rise 6% from last year but decline 14.9% from the previous month due to three fewer selling days.
“The new-vehicle sales pace has been surprisingly strong this summer and through the third quarter as uncertainty around tariff policy has decreased,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Continued low inflation and unemployment rates, coupled with a strong stock market, have kept consumers in a buying mood. A key contributor to sales in recent months has been an increase in EV sales, as buyers rush to market before the $7,500 tax credits expire at the end of September.”
With a surge of EV buyers in market before the end of government-supported tax incentives, Cox Automotive is forecasting a record 410,000 EVs will be sold in Q3, a significant increase (21.4%) year over year and a jump of more than 30% compared to Q2.
The share of EV sales in the third quarter will likely be close to 10% of total sales, a record. The previous EV sales peak in the U.S. was Q4 2024, when 365,824 EVs were sold, accounting for 8.7% of total new-vehicle sales.
“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”
Cox Automotive expects EV sales to slow notably in Q4, but long-term sales growth will continue.
Cox Automotive is forecasting Q3 2025 new-vehicle sales to climb year over year by 6.2%, although they are projected to finish lower compared to Q2 by 1.6%. The year-over-year volume gains in the market are expected to be driven almost entirely by the four biggest automakers: General Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford Motor Company and Hyundai Motor Company. Cox Automotive forecasts the “Big Four” in Q3 to post combined sales gains of 11.2% year over year. The rest of the industry is expected to be higher by 0.1%.
Year to date, the story remains the same, with the Big Four forecasted to gain 9.1 % while the other automakers decline by 2%.
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