Tatarstan car enthusiasts have stepped up purchases amid the looming price hike following the revision of recycling fee rates
“In autumn, people have become more active in buying cars. Although they are already insanely expensive. But after the revision of the recycling fee rates from November 1, cars are likely to become even more expensive, so people are buying now,” explains Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, the reason behind the new wave of excitement. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in new car sales by 25%, the Tatarstan market has shown a drop of only 13% since the beginning of the year. The surge occurred in September, when buyers “swept away” as many as 6,000 vehicles at once. By the end of the year, dealers expect a 15% decline in sales across the country, counting on the inflow of money from deposits into the car market. Read more in Realnoe Vremya’s report.
Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has revealed the official sales results for new cars in the country over the first nine months of this year. In essence, they reflect the depth of the decline in the Russian automotive industry, which throughout the year was widely predicted to face collapse, disaster and turmoil. Indeed, a great deal has happened during this period. Some warned of a shortage of chips and auto components, others feared price dumping from Chinese carmakers, while experts criticised manufacturers for the poor design of new passenger car models. One way or another, the automotive industry is approaching the end of the year with a complex set of challenges.
According to the results for January to September 2025, sales of new vehicles fell by 25%, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia reported. A total of 1,143,369 vehicles aged up to three years were sold across the country. That is 331,237 fewer than during the same period in 2024. The data is based on electronic vehicle passport registrations from JSC Passport Industrial Consulting, a joint venture between Avtostat and the operator of the electronic vehicle passport system.
The steepest decline occurred in the truck segment — down 56%. A total of 40,317 units were sold. At first glance, this figure appears catastrophic. However, when compared with manufacturers’ own forecasts for 2025, the downturn seems to have been anticipated. At least in May this year, Mikhail Matasov, deputy director general of KAMAZ PJSC, stated that by the end of the year the Russian heavy truck market would fall to between 45,000 and 50,000 vehicles. “And this is an optimistic baseline scenario,” he noted, pointing to the high sales base of 2024, when 130,000 trucks were sold. In other words, the decline in the truck segment is hovering on the edge of forecasts.
In tandem with trucks, buses have also dropped out of the race. Their sales fell by 45% — to 8,072 units. In this segment, market participants had forecast a decline to 11,500 units in 2025. This figure was voiced by Maxim Karov, Head of the Marketing Department at the LiAZ, PAZ and KAVZ plants, in December 2024. At that time, he predicted a fall in the bus market of between 25% and 40%. If bus manufacturers fail to make up for the shortfall in the final quarter of the year, the situation may turn out to be more dramatic than expected.
It should not be forgotten that trucks and buses are, after all, investment products, analysts at the Avtostat agency note. Large purchases of trucks were made in 2024, so comparable levels of demand are not expected amid the ongoing reshaping of state programmes.
“Perhaps the situation can be summed up in one word — ‘ooh’,” said Sergey Kogogin, director general of the automotive plant, in a comment to RBC, referring to the “freeze” of the Russian economy.
Sales of passenger and commercial vehicles showed a moderate decline. According to data from Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, sales of passenger cars fell by 22% (from 1,143,469 to 890,275 units), while sales of light commercial vehicles dropped by 21% (from 95,762 to 75,457). The good news is that sales of domestically produced and imported cars are moving almost in parallel.
Fifty per cent of all new passenger car sales are concentrated in the country’s ten most economically developed regions, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Tatarstan ranks fifth, behind Moscow, the Moscow Region, St Petersburg and Krasnodar Krai. The republic accounts for 5% of all vehicle sales, excluding buses, according to the regional vehicle sales ranking.
Between January and September this year, 41,400 passenger cars were sold in the republic — 13% fewer than during the same period in 2024, when 47,900 vehicles were sold. At the same time, sales of light commercial vehicles increased — 3,460 units were sold compared with 3,270 over the same period in 2024. Truck sales in Tatarstan plummeted from 4,600 to 1,900 units, while bus sales declined from 362 to 279.
“The purchasing power of Tatarstan residents is strong. That’s perfectly normal. The region consistently maintains a 5% share and will likely remain among the leaders by the end of the year. The desire to buy cars is universal, and the untapped potential is enormous. You could say Tatarstan has turned out to be wealthier than many other regions,” said Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, in an interview with Realnoe Vremya.
Indeed, the gap in sales figures compared with other Volga regions is quite noticeable. In the Samara Region, 32,000 new passenger cars were sold, along with half as many — 1,600 — commercial vehicles, 584 trucks and 150 buses. A similar picture can be seen in Bashkortostan, where 26,500 passenger cars, 1,570 commercial vehicles, 622 trucks and 100 buses were sold. The Nizhny Novgorod Region shows a slightly better situation in truck sales — 800 units were sold compared with 3,200 over the first nine months of 2024. Passenger car sales decreased by around 1,000 units: 25,900 compared with 26,600.
Purchasing activity has been moving in zigzags. A noticeable surge in passenger car sales in Tatarstan occurred in September, when car buyers purchased 6,000 vehicles at once — at least 1,000 more than usual. According to Avtostat analysts, 35,400 vehicles were sold in the republic over the first eight months, with the depth of the decline reaching 26.4%. In other words, since the beginning of the year, sales dynamics in the republic followed the overall national trend, but in September there was a reversal. As a result, the overall decline amounted to 13%.
The sales leader in Tatarstan remains Lada (Avtostat data covers the first eight months of 2025). A total of 12,235 vehicles were sold, down 25%. The second most popular brand was the Chinese Chery, with 3,800 units sold, down 19.8%, followed by Haval SUVs in third place, with 3,743 units, down 36.4%. Japanese Toyota fell to tenth position, with 550 cars sold, up 39.4%.
“Tatarstan is among the ten largest regional markets in the country. But as soon as news emerged about changes to the recycling fee rates, a rush ensued. Some buyers began revising their car purchase plans in anticipation of price increases. Against this backdrop, demand is being reshaped. We expect October results to be better than those of August and September,” explained the press service of Avtostat.
At present, the average price of a new car has approached 3 million rubles.
“The market is currently difficult. Fearing another price increase, people have become more active in buying cars. Even though they are already insanely expensive. Yet sales have risen, because after the revision of recycling fee rates from November 1, cars are going to become more expensive again,” says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.
According to his forecast, sales will be supported by this wave in September and October, but will decline in January and February. Dealers at KAN Auto are expecting an upswing at the end of the year due to lower deposit rates.
Overall, the annual decline could reach 15%, dealers predict. “These results only confirm our forecast of a 15% market drop by year-end. We are currently seeing a short-term surge due to information about the recycling fee increase. People are trying to buy cars before prices rise, but this will not affect the overall downward trend in sales,” the press service of Association of Russian Automobile Dealers (ROAD) told Realnoe Vremya.
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