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Q3 has just ended, and the fear, uncertainty, and doubt industry we call “media” has jumped at the chance to re-report a punchy headline that originated with one of the most trusted sources in automotive data. Here’s a sampling of some of these headlines:
Kelley Blue Book Report: New-Vehicle Average Transaction Price Hits Record High in September, Surges Past $50,000 for the First Time Ever
Autoblog: Average New Car Price Crosses $50K Barrier as Americans Struggle to Keep Up
Yahoo Finance: Sticker shock: Car prices top $50K for first time in US, Kelley Blue Book says
Let’s analyze these dynamic headlines and see if the facts paint the same picture that the headlines do.
What Is an ATP Anyway?
One important way to measure and track the cost of an automobile is what is called the Average Transaction Price (ATP). This is a number that is used to gauge the cost of a vehicle. It’s not the MSRP, and it is not the highest or lowest price for a given model, but rather an average of transaction prices for all models and also for the automobile industry as a whole. Since 2022, the average transaction price of a vehicle in America has not moved much. Since the ATP is an average, and an estimated number, not a firm one, the fact is that the Average Transaction Price has rounded to the same number over the past three years. Let’s look at the data a bit to see how this is true.
Cox Automotive Average Transaction Price 2022-2025
Cox Automotive is the best source of ATP numbers in the industry for a number of reasons. First, they are a smart group, and they have been doing this for a long, long time. Second, anyone can look at their data. I, as an insider and accredited media member, or any of our readers. No passwords, no accounts, no paywalls. You can just read the latest ATP info or use Cox’s handy Search tool to look up prior ATP reports. This is very unusual. Data like this is extremely valuable, and Cox is doing the industry a real service by making this info available.
ATP is an estimated number, and Cox has used the same methodology to arrive at its figures for decades. What’s great about that is that even if Cox were a bit high or a bit low, it doesn’t matter if what you are looking at is the trend line. They would be a little high or a little low each time, and the trend line would be the same. In case you are wondering, I have no connection to Cox Automotive. I’ve never worked there (though I’d be happy to do so), and Torque News doesn’t have any financial arrangement with Cox of any kind.
December 2022 & December 2024 Average Transaction Price
In December of 2022, the ATP Cox reported was $49,057. Our highlighted link will take you directly to the report. Cox reported this as “a record-high.” This is not unusual. Automobile prices rise steadily as the U.S. dollar loses value. Just like home prices, appliance prices, food prices, property taxes, health insurance, car insurance, and many other costs do. Inflation is designed into the U.S. economy. I’ve been on the planet now for over half of a century, and at no point in that span have prices declined for anything. Sure, they bounce around a bit, but the trend line is always up. Cars, SUVs, Crossovers, Trucks, and Vans are no different. Prices rise because we devalue our dollar. We call it inflation and shrug our shoulders as if it is a law of nature, but actually, it’s just the way the government prefers it to be. Most governments around the world do the same thing.
In December of 2024, the ATP was reported by Cox as $49,740. That was a modest change from 2022, and it marked the end of President Biden’s term. During President Biden’s term ATPs rose more by percent and also in real dollars than they had in any four-year period in modern history. Most of the jump came at the beginning, as Cox’s chart at the top of the page shows.
September 2025 ATP
Cox has just released its latest estimated ATP number, and it has passed $50K for the first time. The number reported by Cox is $50,080. Up just $340 since President Trump assumed office about eight months ago. That is a tiny change of just a fraction of 1%, and again, it is an estimated number, not a hard and fast one. One way to report the ATP this month would be to say it is virtually unchanged over the past eight months, but Cox opted to instead led with “New-Vehicle Average Transaction Price Hits Record High in September, Surges Past $50,000 for the First Time Ever.” Is a 0.6% change over eight months a surge? You be the judge.
ATP Is Not Inflation-Adjusted
As we discussed above, the dollar’s value changes over time. It declines. Always. Its buying power is weakened. Older dollars had more buying power. The government offers a handy online calculator that allows us to calculate the cost of things and compare them in inflation-adjusted dollars. We used the calculator to determine the inflation-adjusted ATP for December 2022 and December 2024. The results were $53,549 in 2022 and $51,059 in 2024. When adjusted for inflation, new vehicle average transaction prices were a lot higher during the Biden administration in 2022 and in 2024. In fact, they were higher for most of the duration of the term than they are today.
Why Did ATPs Rise In September
This past September was an interesting month for automobile sales. The electric vehicle tax incentive and the zero emissions credits, which helped keep EV prices artificially lower than market prices, were ending. Also, the month saw solid growth, with vehicle sales increasing. Cox summarized part of why ATPs rose by saying, “…A rich mix of luxury vehicles and expensive EV models likely helped push the ATP into record territory last month.”
Conclusion – We’ll Let Cox Have the Final Word
Cox led with a splashy headline that gives the impression that something unusual has happened with automobile prices. The impression is that they rose more than usual, or some economic calamity has occurred. However, in its own same report, Cox says the increase of ATP in September was “…aligned with the long-term average of ATP inflation.” That factual statement is a lot less dynamic and engaging than the punchy headlines that many outlets opted to run, isn’t it?  
 
Please tell us your thoughts on the price of new vehicles in the comments below. 
John Goreham is the Vice President of the New England Motor Press Association and an expert vehicle tester. John completed an engineering program with a focus on electric vehicles, followed by two decades of work in high-tech, biopharma, and the automotive supply chain before becoming a news contributor. He is a member of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE int). In addition to his fourteen years of work at Torque News, John has published thousands of articles and reviews at American news outlets. He is known for offering unfiltered opinions on vehicle topics. You can connect with John on LinkedIn and follow his work on his personal X channel or on our X channel. Please note that stories carrying John’s by-line are never AI-generated, but he does employ grammar and punctuation software when proofreading and he also uses image generation tools. 
Average Transaction Prices for U.S. new vehicles chart courtesy of Cox Automotive. You can find this graph here. 
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