The list of newly declared cars for November has just been released, but the results are astonishing.
Traditionally, the end of the year has always been a crucial period for car manufacturers to make their “major moves.” Many strategic new cars planned for the following year would be declared in a concentrated manner, aiming to lock in market attention in advance and warm up for the sales sprint in the first quarter of the next year. This was the case for models such as the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, Xiaomi YU7, all – new XPeng G6, and Leapmotor B10 last year.
However, the situation has changed significantly this year. In the latest declaration list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, most of the new energy vehicle models are facelifts or minor configuration upgrades of existing products. There is almost a lack of blockbuster new products based on new technology platforms and featuring breakthrough innovations.

Facelifted XPeng MONA M03 | Image source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
Why did car manufacturers collectively choose to be “conservative” at this crucial juncture when they should be sprinting for sales?
In the view of Electric Vehicle Insights, behind this phenomenon is the logical shift of the new energy vehicle industry from “seizing the incremental market” to “deeply cultivating the stock market.”
Starting from 1.42% in January 2018, the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market exceeded the 50% mark for the first time in July 2024. This year, the penetration rate has increased even more rapidly, reaching 58.37% in September, setting a new historical high.
New energy vehicles are no longer a “niche choice.” After all, the full – life cycle cost of new energy vehicles is much lower than that of fuel – powered vehicles in the same class, including energy – replenishment costs, time costs, and maintenance costs. Coupled with traffic – restriction exemptions and parking discounts in some cities, the benefits are tangible.
The market has changed, and the rules of the game must change accordingly. As the new energy vehicle market gradually enters the stage of stock competition, consumers’ expectations for new cars have increased, and ordinary minor facelifts can no longer meet their needs.
Therefore, the lack of blockbuster new cars in November does not mean that car manufacturers lack innovation motivation. Instead, the industry’s layout logic has been quietly reconstructed. Car manufacturers are no longer obsessed with releasing new cars at the end of the year. Instead, they have moved the core position of new product launches to the first three quarters, seizing market opportunities in advance to boost annual sales.
This trend is particularly evident among leading car brands. Electric Vehicle Insights noticed that brands such as BYD, Geely Galaxy, Hongmeng Smart Mobility, and NIO have all locked in the release window for their annual strategic new cars in the first three quarters, leaving the fourth quarter entirely for terminal delivery and sales sprint.
The early – layout strategy has also brought remarkable market returns to these brands. BYD’s cumulative sales in the first 10 months reached 3,701,852 vehicles, continuing to lead the industry. Geely Galaxy sold 1.002 million vehicles in the first 10 months, a year – on – year increase of 187%, showing a strong growth momentum. Hongmeng Smart Mobility delivered 68,216 vehicles in October, setting a new monthly delivery record and rapidly increasing market recognition.
Even NIO, which “must be profitable in the fourth quarter,” proactively advanced its annual NIO DAY from the end of the year to September this year and simultaneously launched its last blockbuster new product this year, the NIO ES8. This adjustment has achieved remarkable results. Its delivery volume in October exceeded 40,397 vehicles, a year – on – year increase of 92.6%, and it entered the 40,000 – vehicle monthly sales mark for the first time, laying a foundation for achieving the goal of “being profitable in the fourth quarter.”

Image source: NIO official
Among the new – force car brands, Li Auto also chose to launch two models in the i – series, the i6 and i8, in the second half of the year. XPeng and Leapmotor will launch a few new products such as the X9 Super Extended – Range and Lafa 5 at the end of the year, with a relatively longer release rhythm.
It can be seen that these leading brands have all grasped the rhythm of “layout in the first three quarters and sales sprint at the end of the year” for new cars. However, the strategic logics behind their choices at the same time nodes are not the same.
BYD demonstrates the approach of an “all – around player.” Relying on the cost control ability brought by its vertically integrated industrial chain and continuously iterated core technologies such as DM – i, e – Platform 3.0, CTB, Cloud – Chariot, and Heavenly God’s Eye, it has built a “product empire” covering the mainstream price range. From the Fangchengbao Titanium 7, Denza N8L to the Sea Lion 06, its new products can quickly gain a foothold in the segmented markets.
Hongmeng Smart Mobility’s remarkable performance lies not only in the cars themselves but also in the systematic implementation of Huawei’s intelligent technology in the travel field. Relying on its powerful ecological synergy ability, Hongmeng Smart Mobility has built an uncopyable competitive barrier in the intelligent experience. From the AITO M8, Zunjie S800 to the brand’s first station wagon, the Xiangjie S9T, products in different price ranges follow the same underlying logic of “ecological empowerment and experience – oriented.”

Image source: Xiangjie Automobile official
The changes in the new product rhythms of NIO and Li Auto show more strategic differences. NIO advanced its NIO DAY and blockbuster new cars to stimulate sales as soon as possible and fulfill its urgent commitment to “be profitable in the fourth quarter.” Li Auto, while launching the i6 and i8 to improve its pure – electric layout, still uses the mature L – series as the main force for the year – end sales boost, reflecting a pragmatic strategy of “accumulating strength steadily.”
Looking at the overall situation, as the new energy vehicle market shifts from “incremental competition” to “stock competition,” it is difficult for car manufacturers to form a sustainable advantage simply by competing on “who releases earlier.” The real deciding factor lies in whether product planning can be deeply in line with their own resources, user needs, and market trends. It is this differentiated strategic thinking that allows leading brands to run at different rhythms on the same track – avoiding homogeneous internal strife and finding their own sustainable growth paths.
Of course, the “tacit understanding” shown by leading car manufacturers in their strategic rhythms may not entirely come from the market’s autonomous choice. The change in the policy environment is also a key driving force for the industry’s collective shift.
The Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission have clearly stated that the current national consumption subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will end on December 31, 2025, and the same – level purchase subsidies will not be continued from 2026. To ensure a smooth transition of the policy, 300 billion yuan in subsidy funds have been allocated for the whole year of 2025. The fourth – batch special quota of 69 billion yuan will be mainly used to support the peak car – buying seasons of “Double 11” and “Double 12.” This means that the end of 2025 is the last window period for consumers to enjoy national subsidies.
It is worth noting that this subsidy withdrawal covers all categories of new energy vehicles, marking the official end of the stage when the industry relied on large – scale cash subsidies to stimulate consumption.

Image source: Shot by Electric Vehicle Insights
Meanwhile, the purchase – tax policy for new energy vehicles will also be adjusted simultaneously: from full exemption in 2025 to “half – collection, with a single – vehicle limit of 15,000 yuan” from 2026 to 2027. Specifically, for models with a price of 300,000 yuan or less (excluding VAT), consumers can enjoy a full – half discount at a 5% tax rate. For models priced above 300,000 yuan, the impact of the policy regression is the most obvious. The purchase – tax exemption limit is capped at 15,000 yuan, and consumers need to bear the excess part.
In addition, the access threshold for plug – in (including extended – range) hybrid vehicles has also been raised, requiring a pure – electric range of no less than 100 km under WLTC conditions (about 125 km under CLTC). This change will directly “block out” a number of mid – and low – end hybrid models with a current CLTC pure – electric range between 110 – 120 km, causing them to lose their tax – incentive eligibility.
This change has a particularly significant impact on consumers’ car – buying decisions and car manufacturers’ product strategies.
For example, a family user who wants to buy a 150,000 – yuan new energy vehicle will need to pay 7,500 yuan in purchase tax next year, 7,500 yuan more than the full exemption this year. A user buying a 250,000 – yuan new energy vehicle will have to pay an additional 12,500 yuan. For high – end models priced above 300,000 yuan, the reduction in discounts is even more obvious. This is a significant expense for price – sensitive families, and some consumers with sufficient budgets may tilt their car – buying decisions towards fuel – powered vehicles in the same price range.

Image source: Shot by Electric Vehicle Insights
Currently, there are still many models that do not meet the latest tax – incentive eligibility. For example, a 100,000 – level plug – in hybrid vehicle needs to have a 100 – km WLTC pure – electric range to be eligible for tax incentives. The entry – level versions of hybrid vehicles such as the Xingyao 6, Qin PLUS, and Song Pro DM – i on the market do not meet this standard.
These models are precisely the main force for brand sales, and their target users are highly price – sensitive. If car manufacturers want to re – enter the incentive catalog, they have to make “adjustments” to their products: either increase the battery capacity, upgrade the electronic control or heat – pump system, which will lead to increased costs and ultimately be passed on to consumers; or cut some comfort or intelligent configurations to balance costs while maintaining the original price. Obviously, neither option can satisfy consumers. The former directly raises the car – buying threshold, and the latter reduces the product’s attractiveness. Therefore, car manufacturers are facing a dilemma: they need to adapt to the policy but dare not easily touch the market’s sensitive “price nerve.” This dilemma has objectively slowed down the rhythm of new car launches, forcing enterprises to repeatedly weigh between product planning and cost control.
The absence of blockbuster new energy vehicles in the November declaration list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is not accidental. It is an inevitable shift of the industry driven by both policy and market forces.
Facing the clear nodes of the full withdrawal of subsidies and the reduction of purchase – tax exemptions in 2026, leading car manufacturers have actively advanced their new – car release rhythms, aiming to seize the policy window and avoid market risks. They have chosen to slow down in the face of the unknown car – market environment. After all, in the coming year of 2026, new energy car manufacturers will face a comprehensive test of cost, pricing, and technology.
When subsidies completely withdraw from the stage of history, the underlying logic of new energy competition will completely return to its essence. There may be a decline in the new energy penetration rate in the early stage, but only by relying on hardcore technology, excellent experience, and real user value can more “fuel – lovers” be persuaded to switch to the electric camp.
It can be predicted that 2026 will become a real watershed for China’s new energy vehicle industry. After this test, the brands that can continue to develop will no longer be those good at “getting subsidies” but those that truly understand users, can innovate, and are resilient.
Leaving the “warm – bed” of policies is the real start of China’s new energy vehicles moving towards global competitiveness.
This article is from “Electric Vehicle Insights” and is published by 36Kr with permission.
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