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Will vehicle electrification run low on power in 2026? Which technological trends will define the powertrain mix? Will Chinese brands succeed in Europe? An expert Autovista Group panel answers these questions in a webinar with Autovista24 editor, Tom Geggus.
The global new-car market has seen a cloudy 2025, with economic headwinds, trade wars and supply chain challenges. However, there have been some silver linings, including technological innovation and the launch of more affordable battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).
Autovista Group’s latest webinar, Global new-car market outlook 2026, explored these trends. The panel included chief economist, Dr Christof Engelskirchen, product director, Dr Anne Lange, and sales director, Dan Parnell.
So far, 2025 has seen some challenging economic headwinds. Examining forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026, these conditions look set to continue, and even worsen in some cases.
On the other hand, inflationary rates do appear to have normalised. Most central banks look to be positioning inflation between 2% and 3%.
Meanwhile, the automotive industry is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Faced by protectionist trends and supply-chain challenges, Europe and North America are seeing registrations making a very slow return to 2019 figures. But with a continued push towards electric mobility, how has this affected the transition?
‘We are getting a lot of questions about whether there are strong headwinds to electrification,’ said Engelskirchen. ‘There are headwinds [in Europe], but the headwinds still translate into rising market shares for electric vehicles. This could be rising faster, but it is rising. Our forecast for 2026 is a 20% market share for battery-electric vehicles.’
In North America, policy shifts have moved away from supporting electrification. This lack of excitement in the powertrain has been factored into forecasts.
Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are forecast to continue to enjoy a growing share in China. Including extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), this powertrain category is still eligible for new-energy vehicle subsidies.
EV Volumes anticipates that EREVs will enjoy success in China, whereas the powertrain is not as financially attractive in Europe.
Demand for electric powertrains is driving battery innovation, with chemistry just one area currently being explored. ‘The trend is moving towards affordability, and in the future that will impact which battery chemistries are the most popular,’ said Parnell.
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries can be expected to feature in a greater number of registered vehicles across all regions. This technology offers a good driving range while also being more cost effective to produce. This makes them ideal for the mass market. This trend is particularly noticeable in China.
This mass-market momentum is apparent in the launch of new electric vehicles (EVs), some of which are carrying smaller price tags. Affordable BEVs were launched around 2019 and 2020, such as the Volkswagen e-Up and the MG ZS EV.
However, the following three years saw a greater focus on premium models with large ranges and advanced technology.
‘We have seen recently, because volume needs to come into the market, there needs to be more affordability,’ said Lange. ‘We are getting back to a focus being on affordable vehicles and some models being released.’
On the other hand, PHEVs are larger, more complex vehicles. This is mainly because of their need for two powertrains. This means they are less likely to carry the mass market towards electrification.
Brands from China are set to capture a greater share of the European EV market. However, the large volume of new brands, each with its own model range, raises several important questions. First, which ones will make a lasting impact in the region, and second, how will incumbent marques respond?
Build quality will be an important point for new entrants to consider, particularly in pursuit of the mass market. There will also be a need to approach the European market as a diverse automotive landscape with specific regional demands.
Meanwhile, European brands will need to tighten their production process to ensure maximum efficiency. A focus on more affordable models will also be key, with simple configurations. Playing to their advantages, these brands will need to leverage their existing reputation and production infrastructure.
Enjoyed Global new-car market outlook 2026? Then make sure to register for Autovista Group’s next webinar, 2026 residual value outlook: regional shifts and trends. This will take place on 21 January 2026 at 09:30 GMT, so sign up today.
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