Sign in with
Forget Password?
Learn more
share this!
Share
Tweet
Share
Email
November 26, 2025
by Amin Al-Habaibeh, The Conversation
edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Andrew Zinin
scientific editor
lead editor
This article has been reviewed according to Science X’s editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content’s credibility:
fact-checked
trusted source
written by researcher(s)
proofread
Modern electric vehicles are transforming the roads with low noise, rapid acceleration and zero exhaust emissions. However, drivers of electric vehicles in the UK will now face a new 3p per mile charge and drivers of hybrid vehicles a 1.5p per mile charge.
In her speech, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said, “All cars contribute to the wear and tear on our roads. Drivers will be taxed on how much they drive, not just on the type of car they own.”
This new EV tax would add up to an extra cost of £300 annually, based on a vehicle traveling 10,000 miles per year. The government argues that this tax is needed to compensate for the reduction in fuel duty from the transition to electric vehicles, and because of its budget deficit.
Given that electric vehicles are more expensive than petrol or diesel vehicles and they require further investment for home EV charging stations, it was previously considered important to provide incentives or grants to encourage the move to electric vehicles.
There are three main scenarios that can show the potential effect on the environment.
Let’s consider a family that has an EV and likes to do things that are good for the environment. They may prefer to continue using electric vehicles to support net zero and clean air in their cities, despite the tax rise.
The chancellor’s decision would increase the cost of using their EV. But if the monthly increase of running the EV exceeds the cost of public transport, this environmentally conscious family might consider using their car less and using public transport more.
In this way the family will still contribute to the economy with the new tax, but by choosing a more sustainable transport option they will reduce their energy use, as well as the tire and brake particle pollution their EV creates.
In another scenario, a financially conscious couple might have bought their EV because they liked driving but wanted to avoid paying so much for petrol, tax and congestion charges.
Alongside the new pay-per-mile tax, congestion charges for EVs are rising. In London, for instance, the 100% cleaner vehicle discount for electric vehicles will be replaced the end of December with a 25% discount for electric cars and 50% for vans until March 2030. This does at least offer some saving over petrol and diesel still.
Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. Sign up for our free newsletter and get updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and research that matter—daily or weekly.
The cost analysis will depend on many factors. These include purchase cost, vehicle excise duty, road tax, costs of congestion charges and low emissions zones, maintenance costs, mileage per year, style of use, business tax, fuel or electricity costs, depreciation, location of electric charging (home or public), and any other expected additional taxes or related interest rates.
According to research, for an average annual distance of 10,000 miles, the annual cost of running an electric vehicle is about £1,154. This is about 50% less than the estimated £2,316 equivalent cost to run a conventional petrol car for the same period. With the extra 3p per mile tax, the annual running cost would be £1,454 so the EV could still be an attractive option.
However, on average, electric vehicles in 2025 were 18% more expensive up front than petrol or diesel vehicles. According to OneEv Group, an EV app company, the cost of buying an electric vehicle is £39,000 compared with a petrol vehicle at £33,000.
And based on fuel and electricity prices, the cost of ownership for three years is reported to be around £41,650 and £38,445, respectively. This means EV ownership over three years is already more expensive by £3,205. If the car is driven 10,000 miles per year, with the new 3p per mile tax the total difference would come to £4,105 over three years.
Based on the above, if they carry on traveling the same number of miles, but don’t change their car, there are some financial downsides but no additional environmental consequences.
All new cars will have to be electric or hybrid from 2030. But people who are currently driving petrol or diesel cars still might not switch to electric vehicles due to the additional costs.
There are already estimates of around 440,000 fewer EV sales because of the new pay-per-mile tax. In this case, the expected government shift to net zero by 2050 might have to be delayed. And pollution levels would be reduced by less.
Therefore, it is with this group of people that there might be the biggest environmental consequences.
How big might the effects of the new tax be in a worst-case scenario? We can work out a rough potential estimate for EV drivers switching back to internal combustion engines.
There are about 36.2 million cars in the UK, of which there are 1.3 million EVs. And 13.9% of UK vehicles drive more than 10,000 miles, based on available data from 2021.
If a similar proportion of the 1.3 million EV drivers decided to move to internal combustion engine vehicles because they would suffer most from the new tax, this could mean 180,700 more petrol and diesel cars on the road. Assuming an equal split between petrol and diesel, this could result in over 433,680 extra tonnes of CO₂ emitted per year (based on 240g of CO₂ per mile).
Similarly, calculating particulate matter at 0.005g/km (0.008g/mile), the extra cars would equate to around 14.45 more tonnes of particulate matter. Using the same method, the same number of cars could create 346.9 tonnes per year of nitrogen oxide gases (based on 0.192g/mile). This would mean significant additional air pollution.
In addition to the possible increased air pollution, engine oil change could require on average an additional five liters per year per vehicle. This would be about 903,500 additional liters of engine oil.
Any increase in petrol or diesel use could also create an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses related to pollution in cities.
We don’t know that this scenario will come to pass but it gives a sense of how environmental impacts can add up when many people react to different incentives. However, if the same number of people in this scenario carried on using EVs, and some drove less, then there would be no increase in air pollution levels. And potentially the particulate level could decrease because of fewer journeys.
What remains the biggest threat to the environment is if a large group of people who were thinking of buying EVs choose not to do so.
Provided by The Conversation
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Explore further
Facebook
Twitter
Email
Feedback to editors
3 hours ago
0
3 hours ago
0
Nov 25, 2025
2
Nov 25, 2025
0
Nov 25, 2025
0
7 minutes ago
15 minutes ago
28 minutes ago
34 minutes ago
35 minutes ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
17 hours ago
Nov 20, 2025
Nov 20, 2025
Nov 19, 2025
Nov 3, 2025
Oct 28, 2025
More from Earth Sciences
Jul 14, 2021
Aug 18, 2025
Jan 24, 2025
Jul 3, 2025
May 29, 2020
Sep 30, 2024
15 minutes ago
Nov 25, 2025
Nov 25, 2025
Nov 25, 2025
Nov 25, 2025
Nov 25, 2025
A new UK pay-per-mile tax on electric vehicles may discourage some drivers from switching from petrol or diesel cars, potentially resulting in higher CO₂ and pollutant emissions if EV adoption slows or reverses. The environmental impact depends on whether drivers reduce car use, continue with EVs, or revert to internal combustion vehicles, with the latter scenario posing the greatest risk to air quality and climate goals.
This summary was automatically generated using LLM. Full disclaimer
Use this form if you have come across a typo, inaccuracy or would like to send an edit request for the content on this page. For general inquiries, please use our contact form. For general feedback, use the public comments section below (please adhere to guidelines).
Please select the most appropriate category to facilitate processing of your request
Thank you for taking time to provide your feedback to the editors.
Your feedback is important to us. However, we do not guarantee individual replies due to the high volume of messages.
Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. Neither your address nor the recipient’s address will be used for any other purpose. The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Phys.org in any form.

Get weekly and/or daily updates delivered to your inbox. You can unsubscribe at any time and we’ll never share your details to third parties.
More information Privacy policy
We keep our content available to everyone. Consider supporting Science X’s mission by getting a premium account.
Medical research advances and health news
The latest engineering, electronics and technology advances
The most comprehensive sci-tech news coverage on the web

source