What the new rules for exporting cars from China threaten for the Russian market
The Russian car market is sounding the alarm: dealers are already anxiously anticipating a jump in prices for cars due to the increase in the recycling fee, yet some vehicles may become even more expensive because of another government decision — this time from China. The new export measures introduced by Beijing will affect delivery times and, likely, prices. Read more in Realnoe Vremya’s report.
From 1 January 2026, China will introduce additional restrictions on vehicle exports. A car registered in China less than 180 days before export will be allowed to leave the country only with permission from the manufacturer. As clarified on the official website of China’s Ministry of Commerce, the rules are intended to promote the orderly development of exports of used vehicles with mileage.
The measures are driven by Beijing’s desire to elevate the status of China’s automotive industry and curb the grey market. This summer, Reuters reported that China had been sending abroad — including to Russia — new vehicles disguised as used ones with zero mileage. In this way Chinese manufacturers boosted sales and offloaded models that would have been difficult to sell domestically.
Consultant to the China Automobile Dealers Association Wang Meng told the publication that thousands of sellers had used this scheme. Of the 436,000 used passenger and commercial vehicles exported from China in 2024, 90% had “zero mileage”. Some industry players had already criticised this practice — in particular, Changan chairman Zhu Huarong spoke out against the sale of “zero-mileage used cars”. He argued that it could damage the reputation of Chinese brands.
According to Autostat, every second passenger car sold in Russia in October was Chinese. Yet for the first time in more than two years, the share of vehicles from China fell below 50%. Demand had been declining for several months: in July the figure stood at 55.3%, in August 54.3%, and in September 51.3%. According to the agency’s director, Sergey Tselikov, models such as Belgee (Geely), Tenet or Xcite (Chery) are assembled under local brands in Belarus and Russia.
“This naturally increases the market share of domestic brands and reduces the share of Chinese ones,” he says.
KAN Auto’s press service told Realnoe Vremya that the market is currently experiencing periodic shortages of certain car models. This is explained by a significant surge in sales in October — more than 30% compared with September.
“China’s new export requirements primarily affect deliveries of vehicles under parallel import, meaning brands without an official presence in Russia. These measures are aimed at stopping the export of new cars disguised as used ones, so they will have little noticeable impact on brands represented in the country through official dealers,” TTS’s director for new vehicles, Alexei Karaulov, told Realnoe Vremya.
According to him, prices are likely to rise in the segment of cars imported via parallel channels. This is due to longer logistics times, and a shortage may emerge in the first half of 2026.
“The estimated price increase is around 5–10%. The resulting imbalance in supply may indirectly shift part of the demand towards official dealers, supporting sales of more expensive models, as well as electric vehicles and hybrids,” the speaker believes.
Car couriers, however, are far less optimistic. There are currently dozens of offers online for delivering cars from China, with service fees ranging on average from 20,000 to 60,000 rubles. Dozens of Kazan residents have shared positive testimonials, yet the new measures may nullify these successes, couriers fear.
“For now this will concern new vehicles. You’ll be waiting at least six months, or even seven or eight,” one of them told Realnoe Vremya. “Whether prices go up is another question. I don’t think it matters much. Even at half price no one will wait eight months.”
KAN Auto expects price increases due to changes in the recycling fee and a projected “traditional annual rise in prices”. The new recycling rules came into force on 1 December. Realnoe Vremya has already examined how the revised recycling fee will work, what awaits the car market by 2030, and why a Toyota RAV4 for 6 million rubles is becoming the new norm.
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