The latest forecast from Cox Automotive is predicting that new car sales will exceed two million units this year.
It is predicting 2,035,750 new car sales during 2025, which is an increase of 3.2% on last year.
But while this modest increase is a positive, Cox Automotive is warning of underlying issues facing the industry.
It found that 30% of all new car registrations in June were processed on the final day of the month, indicating a significant uptick in end-of-the-quarter tactical and short-cycle activity, where sales teams push a high volume of last-minute sales to meet targets. 
Positive start
Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The fragility of the new car market has come to light in the second quarter of the year.
“While we celebrated a positive start to the year, what is now apparent is that manufacturer-led incentives and a short-term pull-forward effect due to Vehicle Excise Duty charges temporarily masked the impact of ongoing challenges such as interest rates and waning consumer demand.
“Many manufacturers appeared overly confident after the performance seen between January and March, to the extent that they pulled back or withdrew incentives entirely. This confidence was quickly undermined as showroom activity saw a rapid downturn.”
“Many manufacturers appeared overly confident after the performance seen between January and March, to the extent that they pulled back or withdrew incentives entirely. This confidence was quickly undermined as showroom activity saw a rapid downturn.”
Meanwhile, electric vehicle sales are expected to account for 25% of all new car sales this year, which is below the 28% target set by the ZEV Mandate.
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