SANTA MONICA, Calif. —  Edmunds projects 4,075,132 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. during the third quarter of 2025—up 4.7% from a year earlier but down 3.3% from the second quarter of this year.
“Despite concerns that tariffs would put serious pressure on new vehicle sales, the third quarter held up surprisingly well,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “We haven’t seen prices jump dramatically for consumers since automakers are doing what they can behind the scenes to offset those added costs.”
Caldwell notes that September sales were given an assist by the recent Fed rate cut, which helped boost the buying mood for consumers, as well as the expiration of the EV tax credit. 
“We’re seeing more consumers return to the market with aging trade-ins, which is a strong signal that there’s still real pent-up demand. People may have waited on the sidelines, but now they’re coming back — tariffs or not,” said Caldwell. 
Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights, said the end of the EV tax credit will reshape the market through the rest of the year. 
“The end of the tax credit created a rush in September, but it could also trigger an EV hangover in the months ahead,” said Drury. “EVs currently make up roughly one in every 22 vehicles on dealer lots, and without that incentive in place, dealers and automakers may need to get creative to keep those vehicles moving.” 
Drury added that the model-year transition will also influence sales trends through the rest of the year. 
“Inventory for 2026 models now makes up just over a third of what consumers will find on dealer lots,” said Drury. “There’s still time to shop 2025 models, but the clock is ticking as dealers make room for the new model year — and those prior model year vehicles could move quickly with tariff concerns still on shoppers’ minds.” 
 
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