Elon Musk is ending the year by doubling down on a narrative that looks increasingly shaky against the backdrop of actual data.
The Tesla CEO claims Model Y is the best-selling car in the world, but there are serious doubts.
Yesterday, taking to X (formerly Twitter), Musk congratulated the Tesla team, claiming the Model Y achieved the status of the “world’s best-selling car for the third year in a row.”
It’s a fantastic marketing tagline. It was undeniably true in 2023, when the Model Y made history as the first EV to top the global charts. We even made Model Y the ‘Electrek car of the year’ to mark the achievement.
It was debatably true in 2024, when it ended up in a statistical dead heat with the Toyota RAV4, losing out by a rounding error of about 2,000 units depending on which analyst you ask.
But for 2025? Musk’s claim appears to be disconnected from reality.
While final, validated global registration data from every market won’t be consolidated for another few months, the trend lines available today paint a clear picture: Toyota has likely reclaimed the throne decisively.
According to tracking data from multiple independent analysts covering the first three quarters of the year, and projections for an unsurprisingly soft Q4 for Tesla, the Model Y has likely slipped to third place globally.
The data points to the Toyota RAV4 sitting comfortably in the top spot, with sales largely flat or slightly up compared to 2024. The Toyota Corolla is also likely ahead of the electric SUV. Meanwhile, Model Y global volumes are projected to be down significantly—somewhere in the range of 12% to 15% year-over-year.
Based on the best data available in the first 3 quarters of the year and Q4 projections, here are the top 3:
#1 Toyota RAV4: Estimated Volume on track for ~1.2 million units annually.
#2 Toyota Corolla: Estimated Volume on track for ~1.08 million units annually.
#3 Tesla Model Y: Estimated Volume on track for ~1.03 million units annually.
The problem is that we won’t know for sure for months. By next week, we will know exactly how many Corolla and RAV4 vehicles Toyota delivered in 2025, but we won’t know exactly how many Model Ys for months.
Unlike virtually every other major automaker that releases precise sales figures for individual vehicle programs, Tesla still obfuscates its data. Every quarter, they release a combined delivery number for “Model 3/Y.” They refuse to break down exactly how many Model Ys were delivered versus Model 3s.
This lack of transparency is what allows Musk to make grand proclamations on social media today that will take analysts months to painstakingly disprove using registration data culled from dozens of different countries.
To be fair, Model Y being in the top 3 is impressive on its own, but it doesn’t excuse Elon from being misleading and actively trying to hide the data.
When Musk makes these sort of statements then is he delusional about the state of the car markets or knowingly lying to shareholders? Either way, it makes it difficult to believe his decision making process is rational and fact based when it comes to other issues.
It is still an incredible achievement that a relatively expensive, pure electric crossover is fighting for podium placement against cheaper, ubiquitous gas and hybrid cars like the RAV4 and Corolla. Tesla doesn’t need to be #1 every year for the Model Y to be a massive success.
But accuracy matters, and I don’t see Model Y beating the RAV4 this year. Toyota sold almost 500,000 RAV4 in the US alone this year.
Either way, if Elon Musk wanted to definitively prove the Model Y was the best-selling car of 2025, he could simply have Tesla release the specific Model Y delivery numbers tomorrow.
The fact that they won’t suggests they already know what the rest of us are seeing in the data: the crown has passed back to Toyota for now.
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