New study claims that the uptake of EVs in the US will be delayed by legislative uncertainty and import tariffs
China is pulling further ahead of the United States and Europe in the race toward electrification, with a new study shedding light on how quickly vehicle fleets are expected to transition to EVs. While the U.S. and Europe are moving in the same direction, their pace is notably slower.
In a report published this week, EY, one of the world’s largest professional services and consulting firms, forecasts light vehicle sales through 2050 across the three major regions.
Europe On The Rise
One key takeaway is that in Europe, EV sales will surpass those of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2028. The shift will accelerate from there, with electric vehicles projected to exceed half of all new light vehicle sales in Europe by 2032.
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Interestingly, the study noted that until 2030, hybrids, including PHEVs, will continue to outsell BEVs in Europe until 2030. However, as CO2 regulations become stricter and more affordable pure electric cars hit the market, they’ll soon start to outsell hybrids too.
“The near- to mid-term future will feature a diverse mix of powertrains, shaped by regulatory shifts, tariffs, and evolving consumer behaviour,” explained Constantin M. Gall, EY Global Aerospace, Defense & Mobility Leader. “What’s clear is that e-mobility will remain central to the future of transportation.”
What About The US?
Compared to Europe, the switch to EVs in the United States will be much slower. EY forecasts a brief surge in sales this month ahead of the expiration of federal EV tax credits, but the long-term outlook has weakened. In an earlier projection, BEVs were expected to reach 50 percent of U.S. light vehicle sales by 2034. That milestone has now been delayed to 2039, with factors such as policy uncertainty, import tariffs, and the loss of incentives slowing adoption.
Hybrids are expected to fill the gap. Their share of the U.S. market could climb to a peak of 34 percent by 2034 before giving way to wider EV adoption.
China Leads The Pack
In China, the shift is happening much faster. This year, combined sales of battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in the country are tipped to reach 50 percent and will surge past 90 percent by 2034. Interestingly, BEV sales alone are only expected to account for 50 percent of light vehicle sales by 2033, a year behind Europe, showing just how important PHEVs will remain in the country through the next decade.
“The EV transition is advancing—but unevenly,” Constantin M. Gall from EY said. “The US faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps. Europe is on a steady recovery path under strict emissions targets. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem. Hybrid technologies are proving essential in bridging the gap to full electrification.”
For automakers, the uneven timelines mean strategy can’t be one-size-fits-all. Success will depend on building flexible platforms that can serve fast-moving markets like China and Europe while keeping slower adopters in North America engaged.
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Brad Anderson’s lifelong affair and fascination with cars started young. Before even graduating high school,… Read full bio

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