Have you noticed that Tesla hasn’t launched a brand – new model for a full five years? Even the long – awaited Cybertruck was actually unveiled in 2019. What’s even more surprising is that in the latest “Master Plan Part Four”, Elon Musk didn’t mention a single new car! What on earth is Musk up to?
Our team from the US Stock Investment Network interviewed several tech moguls in Silicon Valley, and the answers were astonishing:
Tesla isn’t experiencing an innovation slump like Apple with the iPhone. Instead, Tesla is brewing a complete revolution.
While other automakers are still competing on battery range and configurations, Musk has set his sights on a higher dimension. The next Tesla car, if launched, won’t have a steering wheel. It will be completely driver – less, with the interior design completely reimagined, opening a new chapter for cars as a means of transportation.
So, how will Musk tell this new story to Wall Street?
How will Tesla’s strategy shift from being a “car – manufacturing company” to an “AI robot + energy storage empire”?
What potential returns will this bring to retail investors?
If we only look at “car sales”, Tesla’s situation doesn’t look good.
In major global markets, Tesla’s market share is declining. In August 2025, its share in the US electric vehicle market dropped to 38%, hitting a new low since 2017. In Europe, the registration numbers in Germany and the UK almost halved year – on – year. In China, its market share in August 2025 was only 5.1%, far lower than BYD’s 27.8%.


These figures all point to one conclusion:
It’s becoming increasingly difficult for Tesla to recreate its past glory by simply “selling more cars”.
The question is: with such poor sales, why doesn’t Tesla just go back and build a more affordable car with more luxurious configurations to regain the market? After all, with the large – scale production of its super – factories and the world’s most mature supply chain, Tesla is fully capable of doing so.
Behind this is actually a very core strategic consideration of Tesla: it doesn’t want to become an ordinary automaker at all.
First, let’s face a harsh reality: building affordable cars yields pitifully low profits. This market has long been caught in a fierce price war, with competition reaching a fever pitch. Many automakers are willing to sacrifice profit margins to seize market share.
Take BYD as an example. On May 23rd this year, BYD announced a trade – in promotion for nearly 20 models, with discounts of up to 34%. The cheapest intelligent driving model, “Seagull”, had a post – trade – in starting price of only 55,800 yuan, a 20% reduction.

In the second quarter of 2025, BYD’s gross profit margin dropped to 16.3%, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2022. After excluding the profit contribution from BYD Electronics, the profit per vehicle of its automotive business in the second quarter was only 4,800 yuan, far lower than 8,800 yuan in the first quarter, hitting a new low since 2022.

If Tesla rashly gets involved in the price war in the low – end market, it will be a risky gamble. At this point, die – hard Tesla fans might jump up and retort: “Can Tesla be compared with domestic automakers?” – Indeed, it can’t. But the problem is that domestic consumers may not have a clear understanding of this. They are easily influenced by the overwhelming subway advertisements and marketing slogans when making purchasing decisions.
Tesla’s current gross profit margin of 17.2% is already not high. Once it gets into a price war, its profit margin will be further compressed. To maintain low prices, Tesla will have to make compromises in its supply chain and production processes. In the long run, the company’s financial health will be damaged. More importantly, its R & D investment and technological innovation, on which it depends for survival, will also be dragged down, thus weakening its core technological advantages. This is like “pulling out the firewood from under the cauldron”, which will doom its future development.


For Wall Street, the valuation criteria are completely different. Automobile companies are mainly evaluated based on profits, sales volume, and market share, while technology companies are more focused on growth potential, technological barriers, and market leadership. If Tesla sacrifices profits for sales volume, it will no longer be regarded as a high – growth technology company but will be lumped together with traditional automakers like Volkswagen and Toyota. It’s like a once – promising “tech upstart” losing its unique identity by catering to the mass market and finally being dethroned. Tesla’s high valuation will be completely destroyed.

Moreover, Tesla’s brand image will be severely damaged. It’s like a luxury brand starting to sell cheap products for the sake of sales. Not only will it lose customers who were originally willing to pay for high – end technology and unique design, but its brand value will also be greatly diminished. Consumers who once admired Tesla’s innovation may turn to other more cost – effective brands. Once Tesla’s “leader” aura fades, its market leadership will be at stake.
Now, we can say that Tesla’s future has never been about selling a few more cars. Its strategy is to build a comprehensive ecosystem spanning transportation, energy, and artificial intelligence. In this blueprint, cars are just an entry point, and future profit growth points lie in high – value businesses such as autonomous driving, energy storage systems, and robots.
This is fully reflected in Tesla’s newly released “Master Plan Part Four”. The plan doesn’t mention any new electric vehicles under development but focuses on more forward – looking areas such as robotaxis, artificial intelligence, and robots.
The illustration in the plan also implies this: a family is playing Jenga, and a Tesla robot is watering plants behind them. This indicates that its future business core will be AI – driven home service robots, not traditional cars.

Musk actually laid the groundwork for this grand plan a long time ago. As early as 2016, he envisioned that future fully autonomous vehicles could generate passive income for people. The latest version of the plan takes it a step further, shifting the focus entirely to AI.
If Tesla gets caught in the low – end price war for short – term sales, it will spend a lot of energy on low – profit businesses and have no time to focus on more valuable future layouts. This is like putting the cart before the horse, giving up the chance to become a future giant for short – term petty gains.
So, rather than saying that Tesla is bad at selling cars, it’s more accurate to say that it doesn’t want to just sell cars. It’s playing a much bigger game, and the current decline in sales is an inevitable result of its strategic transformation.
The core of Tesla’s grand blueprint is to transform cars into “robot assets” that can continuously generate cash flow. The business model of traditional automakers is “build cars – sell cars”, making money in one go. Tesla’s goal, however, is to turn each car into a 24/7 “employee”, earning continuous and high – profit income by providing autonomous driving mobility services. This is a fundamental change in its business model.
Musk clearly stated last year that if a $25,000 affordable car doesn’t have full – self – driving capabilities, its production would be “meaningless”. This means that Tesla’s next car won’t be a traditional car that requires a driver but a fully driverless robotaxi.
Tesla’s core advantage lies in cost control. Compared with competitors like Waymo, Tesla’s Full Self – Driving (FSD) system is developed based on mass – produced models, which significantly reduces its overall vehicle manufacturing cost compared to its rivals.
The price of a Tesla FSD model is only between $50,000 and $60,000, while Waymo’s vehicles are estimated to cost up to $200,000, three times the price of Tesla’s. This huge advantage allows Tesla to offer robotaxi services at a more competitive price and quickly capture the market.

If this plan succeeds, the potential financial returns will be astonishing. Imagine if Tesla deploys 1 million robotaxis globally, and each car can generate a net income of over $40,000 per year. This will bring the company an annual cash flow of up to $40 billion.
Wall Street has high expectations for this. Institutions like Morgan Stanley even predict that by 2040, the global robotaxi market will reach the trillion – dollar level. If Tesla can capture 30% – 35% of the market share, the annual revenue of its robotaxi business is expected to exceed $500 billion, adding trillions of dollars to the company’s market value.
Tesla has already taken action to achieve this goal. On September 11, 2025, Tesla received approval from the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles to test its autonomous driving technology on public roads. Nevada is friendly to autonomous driving, and Tesla has previous trial – operation experience in Austin and the Bay Area of California.

Musk said he is confident that by the end of 2025, it will cover half of the US population. This shows that the robotaxi is no longer a distant future but a grand plan that is gradually being realized and will change the entire transportation and mobility industry.

If Tesla’s robotaxi aims to “revolutionize mobility”, then the Optimus humanoid robot is playing an even bigger game. It wants to extend the tentacles of intelligence from the roads to factories, warehouses, and even our homes.
According to Musk’s vision, Optimus is not just an efficiency tool but also the seed of a social revolution. When robots can take on boring, repetitive, and high – intensity physical work, humans can be liberated from heavy labor and engage in more creative work.
Musk has publicly said that 80% of Tesla’s future value may come from Optimus. How significant is this statement? Consider that Tesla’s current market value from selling electric vehicles is nearly a trillion dollars, yet Musk says that an un – mass – produced robot could be worth several times that of its automotive business in the future. This shows his extreme optimism about the potential of the robot market.

According to the company’s plan, the Optimus 3 prototype will be unveiled by the end of 2025, and mass production will start in 2026. The target cost of each robot is about $20,000 – $30,000, which is comparable to the price of a mid – range car. This means that Optimus will become an “intelligent tool” for the mass market.
But the real potential lies not in selling robots themselves but in “selling services”. If calculated based on the salary target of delivering 1 million units in ten years, the hardware sales could reach $25 billion. However, these robots will require continuous software upgrades, computing power support, and industry – specific customization. Assuming each robot can generate $1,000 – $2,000 in service revenue per year, 1 million robots would mean $1 – 2 billion in recurring revenue. Moreover,
该文观点仅代表作者本人，36氪平台仅提供信息存储空间服务。
36kr Europe (eu.36kr.com) delivers global business and markets news, data, analysis, and video to the world, dedicated to building value and providing business service for companies’ global expansion.
© 2024 36kr.com. All rights reserved.

source