Despite a push by some carmakers to offer generous incentives on Black Friday and through the end of the year, it may not be enough to overcome the fatigue felt by many consumers over climbing prices for new vehicles, experts said.
Auto industry analysts forecast new vehicle sales are slowing this year as consumers keep their cars longer or look to used vehicles amid escalating prices for new vehicles. It is a trend expected to go through the end of this year and into next year.
“As long as interest rates remain high and uncertainty remains in policy, affordability will be a challenge,” Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive, told the Detroit Free Press on Dec. 1.
In-depth coverage from Detroit: Consumers are shunning new car sales as prices climb
When U.S. new vehicle sales for November are released starting Dec. 2, many analysts predict a dramatic dip in sales across the industry compared with the year-ago period based on fewer government subsidies on electric vehicles and prices for new vehicles across the board drifting ever higher.
Cox Automotive estimates U.S. sales volume for November will be 1.27 million new cars sold, down 1% from October and down a whopping 7.8% from last year’s finish. J.D. Power has a slightly different estimate for new-vehicle retail sales in the United States. For November, it estimates sales of 1,058,500 new vehicles sold, a 4.8% decrease from November 2024.
All of this is a sharp U-Turn on the road to prosperity the auto industry was traveling at the start of the year, when many analysts forecast modest growth in U.S. auto sales for 2025.
Cox Automotive said on Jan. 26 that new vehicles sales would reach 16.3 million by year’s end, stating that “positive economic” conditions combined with “improved buying conditions should lead to a 2%-3% gain” over 2024 total sales.
That was before President Donald Trump instituted tariffs
Many automakers held off raising manufacturer’s suggested retail prices due to tariffs. But J.P. Morgan Global Research said in September that the cost to the industry of the combined tariffs on vehicles and parts will be around $41 billion in the first year. Automakers and consumers are expected to share the burden equally, with a projected 3% increase to new vehicle price inflation at some point.
In October, the average transaction price for a new vehicle − that’s the price you pay after all incentives and trade-in money is deducted from the manufacturer’s suggested retail price − was $49,766, up 2% from October 2024, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index report in October showed that new-vehicle affordability edged down for the third consecutive month.
In fact, in September new-vehicle affordability hit its lowest point since December 2024 and didn’t improve in October as automakers significantly cut incentives that month.
 Jamie L. LaReau is the senior autos writer for USA Today Co. who covers Ford Motor Co. for the Detroit Free Press. Contact Jamie at jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. To sign up for our autos newsletter. Become a subscriber.

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