Cox Automotive forecasts that November new-vehicle sales will decline in both volume and pace compared to the previous year. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to reach 15.7 million. This projection is an increase from October’s 15.3 million pace but falls short of last year’s 16.5 million level. The average monthly SAAR through October has been 16.2 million.
Sales volume is anticipated to decrease to 1.27 million, marking a 1% decline from October and a 7.8% drop from last year. The month of November has 25 selling days, two fewer than October and one less than last year, contributing to the expected decline in sales volume.
“The new-vehicle sales pace had been expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and that’s what we are seeing,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The headwinds from higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles are finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months. Sales began surging in the spring as buyers rushed to market to beat expected higher prices in the wake of announced tariffs. Now prices are drifting higher. This leads to slower sales which may last through the remainder of the year and into next year.”
The expiration of the federal EV tax credit in October has led to a reversal in the EV market, Cox said.
“Sales of EVs and PHEVs accelerated in the wake of the Big Beautiful Bill’s passage in early July as buyers rushed to market before the $7,500 tax credits expired at the end of September,” Chesbrough said. “Q3 was the strongest quarter ever for EVs. However, Q4 is a different story. Sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids are now collapsing after tax credits expired.”
The decline in expensive EV sales has contributed to lower market-wide new-vehicle sales and a decrease in the industry’s average transaction prices. Cox Automotive said it anticipates that lower EV sales will continue as the market adjusts to these changes.
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Collaboration with Toyota
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