January 7, 2026
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Most auto market metrics are expected to decline in 2026 after outperforming forecasts in 2025 amid shifting consumer dynamics shift and policy uncertainty
Atlanta—Cox Automotive has released its 2026 automotive industry outlook, projecting new vehicle sales in the U.S. to hit 15.8 million units in 2026, down 2.4% from 2025 levels. Most forecasted metrics for the automotive market, according to Cox Automotive, are expected to be lower than in 2025, a year that outperformed most expectations.
“The fact is, most vehicle sales metrics in 2025 were slightly stronger than many forecast — including us,” said Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive. “Our 2026 forecast reflects a slowing market, but still a good one. While we’re expecting most sales metrics to be lower compared to 2025, the expected declines are modest, and we think there will be good news on interest rates and tax returns that help the auto market in the first half of 2026.”
The forecast is shaped in part by major forces pulling the economy in different directions, which will simultaneously help and hinder the auto industry in the year ahead.
Cox Automotive’s 2026 outlook calls for a slowing but stable U.S. auto market, with most sales metrics expected to dip slightly from 2025 levels.
Published in EVs, National News and OEM News
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