Total supply edges up amid the arrival of next-model-year vehicles, EV incentives, and disciplined production strategies by automakers
On the Dash:
- U.S. new-vehicle inventory increased 4.8% month over month to 2.76 million units but remains 3.9% below last year.
- Average listing prices rose to $48,697, and ATP reached $49,077, reflecting continued inflationary pressures and strong demand.
- EV sales hit record levels, driven by expiring federal tax credits, while automakers maintain disciplined inventory strategies.
U.S. new-vehicle inventory is gradually increasing as next-model-year vehicles hit dealer lots and incentives for electric vehicle purchases take effect, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data.
As of early September, the total supply of unsold new vehicles stood at 2.76 million units, up 4.8% from August but still 3.9% below levels from a year earlier. Days’ supply rose to 77, an increase of 4.1% month over month, but down 10% compared with September 2024, which indicates that vehicles are moving off lots faster than a year ago.
Additionally, the average listing price inched up 0.2% month over month to $48,697, a 4% increase from last year. The average transaction price (ATP) rose to $49,077, up 0.5% from July and 2.6% year over year. Incentive spending remained largely steady at 7.2% of the ATP, slightly down from 7.3% in August.
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Sales have held strong despite higher prices. New-vehicle sales in August rose 0.7% from July and 6.7% year over year. Growth has been supported by the rush to take advantage of expiring federal EV tax credits and dealer incentives, which have driven higher traffic and purchases of electric vehicles.
Inventory trends have shifted over the year. The first half of 2025 saw a sharp decline in supply as consumers rushed to buy ahead of anticipated tariff-induced price increases. In the second half, automakers have slowly replenished inventory for in-demand models while keeping production of low-volume or underperforming vehicles disciplined. Brands like Fiat, Alfa Romeo, MINI, Infiniti, and Jaguar are tightening inventory, while Toyota, Honda, Kia, Chevrolet, and Mazda maintain balanced production.
Electric vehicles are playing a key role in overall market dynamics. August EV sales reached a record share of total U.S. sales, boosting the industry’s average transaction price. Incentives for EVs remain higher than the market average, averaging 16% of ATP or more than $9,000 per vehicle.
Industry analysts say the market shows signs of stabilizing after early-year volatility. Manufacturers are recalibrating production, managing supply in line with demand, and using targeted incentives to maintain sales momentum. Meanwhile, consumers are navigating rising prices while weighing incentives, particularly for EVs, as the year-end approaches.
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